2020-04-14 - Exit Strategy from COVID-19

We need an exit strategy from heavy-handed COVID-19 pandemic isolation. We need it because soon enough, every developed economy will have passed peak infection and minimized the number of new cases, and it will be time to get the economy started again, so that we can pay for the extraordinary measures we have collectively invoked to keep people alive, with a roof over their heads, food on their table and hopefully jobs. Endless isolation is not viable, and the sooner we can (safely) end it, the better.

First, lets all agree that the strategy needs to be based on empirical data and science. That means, for example, that we cannot use data from China, Iran or other regimes which may be dishonest, which have limited testing capacity or whose healthcare system has minimal capacity. This means that useful data can only come from developed, democratic states.

Some early public policy decisions in Western countries were made based on official reporting from China and advice from the WTO, which appears to have no bullshit filter when accepting data from member states. Lets not do that again.

So what does the exit strategy look like?

Here are some thoughts:

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